Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Pick & Prediction – 7/27/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on July 27, 2024, both teams find themselves mired in disappointing seasons. The Angels, with a 45-58 record, have struggled throughout the year, while the Athletics, at 42-63, have fared even worse.

This American League West matchup will be the third game in a series between the two teams, taking place at Angel Stadium. The Angels are projected to start left-hander Tyler Anderson, who has had an up-and-down season. Despite an impressive 2.91 ERA, his 4.89 xFIP suggests he has been quite fortunate and may regress. Anderson's 8-8 record over 20 starts reflects his inconsistency, and he is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs on average. His low strikeout rate (17.7 K%) might actually play to his advantage against the Athletics, who rank 2nd in MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with right-hander Mitch Spence. Spence has a 6-6 record with a 4.67 ERA over 12 starts and 23 bullpen appearances. However, his 4.03 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results. Spence is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs on average. Despite his below-average strikeout rate (4.3 Ks per game), the Angels' offense, ranked 24th in MLB, might not pose too significant a threat.

The Angels' offensive struggles are evident as they rank 22nd in team batting average and 20th in home runs. However, they do rank 7th in stolen bases, which could add an element of unpredictability. Kevin Pillar has been a bright spot lately, batting .375 with a 1.000 OPS over the last week.

The Athletics, although ranking 27th in team batting average, have shown power with the 4th most home runs in MLB. Lawrence Butler has been on fire, hitting .565 with a 1.760 OPS over the last week, including 2 home runs and 7 RBIs.

Both bullpens have been weak, with the Angels ranked 25th and the Athletics 20th in the Power Rankings. With a high game total set at 9.0 runs, this could be a game where the offenses take center stage.

The Angels are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Athletics sit at +100, implying a 48% chance. Given the Angels' recent struggles and the Athletics' power-hitting potential, this matchup is poised to be a close and intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Mitch Spence will surrender an average of 3.08 earned runs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed bats in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Logan O'Hoppe has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 83.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+10.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.90 Units / 92% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.68 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.99

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