Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 6/29/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Oakland Athletics prepare for the second game of their series on June 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal positions this season. The Diamondbacks, with a 39-43 record, are having a below-average season, while the Athletics are struggling even more at 30-54.

Yesterday, the Athletics pulled off an upset, defeating the Diamondbacks 9-4 despite entering the game as significant underdogs. Arizona had a closing Moneyline price of -165 with an implied win probability of 61%, while Oakland's +150 Moneyline implied just a 39% chance of victory. The Diamondbacks' loss highlighted their recent struggles, even as they boast one of the better offenses in MLB, ranking 7th in overall power rankings.

Today's game features an intriguing pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks will start Zac Gallen, the 28th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gallen has been solid this season with a 3.12 ERA, though his 4.00 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate. Gallen's projected stats for today are a mixed bag: while he is expected to allow just 1.7 earned runs, he also projects to pitch only 4.2 innings and allow 3.8 hits and 0.8 walks, both of which are concerning.

On the mound for the Athletics is Hogan Harris, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the same Power Rankings. Despite his excellent 2.72 ERA, Harris's 4.60 xFIP indicates he's likely been quite lucky. The projections are not kind to him either, expecting him to allow 2.9 earned runs over 4.7 innings, with subpar strikeout and walk numbers.

Arizona's offense, led by Ketel Marte, who has been their best hitter with a .284 batting average and .865 OPS, will look to bounce back. Marte has been particularly hot over the last week, batting .333 with a 1.106 OPS. On the other side, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot for the Athletics, hitting .264 with a .856 OPS this season.

Despite the Diamondbacks’ recent loss, they remain the favorites for today's game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Arizona to score 4.99 runs on average and win with a 62% probability. With a current Moneyline of -200, their implied win probability is 64%, making them a strong pick to even the series. Meanwhile, the Athletics, with a Moneyline of +170 and an implied win probability of 36%, face an uphill battle.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hogan Harris is projected to throw 84 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year's 94.9-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his slider 6.3% more often this year (9.7%) than he did last season (3.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#2-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Herrera in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.85 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.1 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.14

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