Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction – 6/30/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Medina - Athletics
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on June 30, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams find themselves at different ends of the performance spectrum. The Diamondbacks, with a 40-43 record, are having a below-average season, while the Athletics, at 30-55, have been struggling mightily.

Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Pfaadt, ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown flashes of potential this season. His 4.45 ERA is average, but his 3.89 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Pfaadt has a 3-6 record over 16 starts, and he projects to pitch 5.6 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters on average.

On the other side, Oakland will counter with Luis Medina. Medina has had a rough go with a 1-3 record and a 5.25 ERA over 5 starts. His peripherals, including a 4.59 xERA, suggest some bad luck, but his projections for today's game are less promising. Medina is expected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 3.7 batters.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks hold the edge with the 12th best lineup in MLB. They rank 10th in team batting average and 18th in home runs, showcasing a balanced attack. Ketel Marte has been a standout over the last week, hitting .455 with an impressive 1.384 OPS, including 2 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 6 games.

In contrast, the Athletics' offense ranks 25th overall, despite being 7th in home runs. Armando Alvarez has been a bright spot recently, batting .429 with a 1.000 OPS over the last 4 games, but the lineup lacks consistency.

With the Diamondbacks as the big betting favorite at -190 and an implied win probability of 63%, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage and superior starting pitching to secure a win against the struggling Athletics.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kyle McCann's true offensive talent to be a .265, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .085 disparity between that figure and his actual .350 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt has recorded 18.2 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ketel Marte has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.8% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Zack Gelof has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.02 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.04

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