New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Preview – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals welcome the New York Yankees to Nationals Park on August 27, 2024, the stakes are intriguing for both teams. The Yankees, currently boasting a record of 78-54, are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals sit at 59-73, struggling to find their footing.

The matchup features two pitchers with starkly contrasting trajectories. Patrick Corbin, projected to start for the Nationals, has had a rough year with a 3-12 record and a 5.73 ERA, ranking him as the 311th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections indicate he may struggle again, averaging just 4.8 innings pitched while allowing 3.4 earned runs. This is particularly concerning against a powerful Yankees lineup that has hit 149 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Gerrit Cole, expected to take the mound for New York, has been a cornerstone for the Yankees, compiling a 5-2 record with a solid 3.72 ERA. Although his projections suggest he might allow 2.5 earned runs over 6.0 innings, Cole’s effectiveness could be heightened against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in home runs.

Despite their struggles, the Nationals have shown flashes of talent, especially with Jacob Young’s recent performance, where he hit .375 over the last week. However, with the Yankees’ offensive firepower and Cole’s prowess on the mound, the odds heavily favor New York. With a game total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors might find the Yankees’ moneyline of -215 to be an attractive option, considering their current form and the Nationals’ uphill battle.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all SPs, Gerrit Cole's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph grades out in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Giancarlo Stanton has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.3-mph to 97.6-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Patrick Corbin is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jose Tena has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .307 rate is quite a bit higher than his .274 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, James Wood, Jose Tena).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 120 games (+9.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games (+18.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.14 vs Washington Nationals 3.82

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