New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Prediction & Picks 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 3, 2024, both teams find themselves in starkly different positions in the standings. The Yankees, boasting a record of 80-58, are enjoying a strong season and sit in a favorable position for a playoff berth. In contrast, the Rangers, at 65-73, are struggling and currently have little to show for their efforts.

In their last outing, the Yankees faced off against the Rangers and emerged victorious. This game marks the second in the series, and the Rangers will look to bounce back. Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Texas, coming off a season where he’s compiled a 4-13 record and a respectable ERA of 3.95. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 147th best starting pitcher, indicating below-average performance.

Carlos Rodon, projected to start for the Yankees, has had a superior season with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 4.31, placing him as the 88th best in the league. While both pitchers are left-handed, Rodon’s ability to pitch into the 5th inning on average gives the Yankees an edge. Additionally, the Yankees come into this game with the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Rangers rank 23rd, underscoring the challenges Texas faces.

The Rangers' best hitter over the last week has been Corey Seager, who has recorded 11 hits in 6 games with a .407 batting average. Meanwhile, the Yankees' Jazz Chisholm has been on fire, boasting a .476 batting average, contributing to New York's offensive prowess.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs projected, bettors should consider the Yankees' strong position against a struggling Rangers team. The odds suggest a close contest, but the Yankees’ overall talent may prove decisive.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.8% vs. 39.6% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees batters as a unit place in baseball for power this year when using their 10.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Josh Jung has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games at home (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 73 games (+20.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.05 Units / 82% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.12 vs Texas Rangers 4.6

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.