New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/17/2025

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup within the American League East. Both teams are coming off notable performances, but the Yankees are riding high with an impressive start to their season, boasting an 11-7 record, while the Rays are struggling at 8-10.

The spotlight will be on Taj Bradley, the Rays' promising right-handed pitcher, who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2-0 record and a solid 3.71 ERA. Bradley ranks as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his potential to be a game-changer despite his team's recent struggles. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, with a forecasted 2.6 earned runs, 6.4 strikeouts, and an unfortunate 4.5 hits allowed. This high flyball rate could be a concern against a Yankees lineup that leads the league with 33 home runs.

Conversely, Will Warren will take the mound for the Yankees, bringing a less favorable 5.14 ERA and a 1-0 record into this contest. While Warren is projected for 5.1 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs and 4.9 strikeouts, many believe he has room to improve given his xFIP of 3.73, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky this season.

Offensively, the teams present a stark contrast; the Rays' lineup ranks 6th best overall, while the Yankees boast the top offense in MLB, underscoring the challenge for Tampa Bay's pitching staff. The Game Total is set at a relatively high 9.0 runs, reflecting the expectation for a competitive game. With the Rays favored at -120 on the moneyline, this matchup offers intriguing betting opportunities as both teams vie for crucial AL East positioning.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all SPs, Will Warren's fastball spin rate of 2496.6 rpm grades out in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ben Rice is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.333 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .355 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball batters, Taj Bradley and his 35.9% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this matchup facing 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year's 91.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a unit have been among the worst in the league since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) in regard to their 88-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 84 games at home (+4.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.77, Tampa Bay Rays 4.5

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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