New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 7/30/2024

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees continue their intriguing Interleague series on July 30, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies emerged victorious in the series opener, adding another win to their impressive 65-41 record. Both teams are having great seasons, with the Yankees not far behind at 63-45.

The Phillies, currently with the 6th-best offense in MLB, have been carried by their strong batting average and home run capabilities. In contrast, the Yankees boast the 2nd-best offense overall, excelling particularly in home runs but lagging in stolen bases. Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .350 with a 1.419 OPS, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in 6 games. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been equally impressive for the Yankees, batting .400 with a 1.650 OPS, 4 home runs, and 10 RBIs over the same span.

On the mound, the Phillies will start Aaron Nola, who has been stellar this season with an 11-4 record and a 3.44 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nola ranks as the 26th-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. He’s projected to pitch 5.5 innings, strike out 6.0 batters, and allow 3.0 earned runs today. His low walk rate (5.9 BB%) could neutralize the Yankees' patient approach at the plate, as they lead MLB in drawing walks.

The Yankees will counter with Gerrit Cole, who has had a tougher season with a 3-2 record and a 5.40 ERA across his 7 starts. Despite these numbers, his 4.26 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might rebound soon. Cole is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters. However, his high flyball rate (42 FB%) could be a concern against a powerful Phillies lineup ranked 6th in home runs.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Phillies ranked 3rd and the Yankees 13th by advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given the tight moneyline odds (-120 for Philadelphia and +100 for New York), this game is expected to be closely contested. The Phillies have an implied team total of 4.61 runs, slightly higher than the Yankees' 4.39, indicating a slight edge for Philadelphia in this matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Gerrit Cole's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (54.6% vs. 47% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

From last season to this one, Aaron Judge's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 101.9 mph to 99.9 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The New York Yankees projected offense profiles as the best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2359 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2279 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

When it comes to his batting average, Trea Turner has experienced some positive variance this year. His .326 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .266.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 46 games at home (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+18.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+9.45 Units / 158% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.35 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.95

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