New York Yankees vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Preview – 6/25/2024

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • David Peterson - Mets

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On June 25, 2024, the New York Mets will host the New York Yankees at Citi Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Mets, sitting at 37-39, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast an impressive 52-28 record. The Yankees are surging, powered by one of the league's top offenses, ranked 3rd overall, and they'll look to continue their strong play against their crosstown rivals.

The matchup on the mound features David Peterson for the Mets and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Peterson, a lefty, has been decent with a 3-0 record and a 3.97 ERA, though his 4.73 xFIP suggests he might regress. Meanwhile, Cole, a righty, has a 4.50 ERA but a more promising 3.53 xFIP, indicating he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better going forward.

Peterson's ground-ball tendencies (54% GB rate) might play to his advantage against the power-heavy Yankees lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs with 115. However, his projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggest a challenging outing, with 4.9 innings pitched, 2.3 earned runs, and 4.6 hits allowed. On the other side, Cole's projections also aren't stellar, with 4.7 innings pitched and 2.1 earned runs allowed, but his track record and advanced metrics give the Yankees an edge.

Offensively, the Mets rank 11th overall and 7th in home runs, showing they can generate power. Francisco Alvarez has been hot over the last week, hitting .471 with 2 home runs and a 1.571 OPS. For the Yankees, Trent Grisham has been leading the charge, hitting .375 with a 1.194 OPS over the last seven games.

In the bullpen, both teams are relatively evenly matched, with the Mets ranked 13th and the Yankees 16th in Power Rankings. This game could come down to which bullpen can hold the line late.

The Yankees enter the game as favorites with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. With their potent offense and Cole's potential for a bounce-back performance, the Yankees look poised to take the series opener. However, the Mets have the tools to make it a competitive matchup, especially if Peterson's ground-ball approach can neutralize the Yankees' power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Gerrit Cole in the 94th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.19 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 85% ROI)

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.72 vs New York Mets 4.29

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