New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 5/27/2025

On May 27, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Yankees at Angel Stadium for the second game of their series. The Angels have been struggling this season with a record of 25-28, while the Yankees are enjoying a strong campaign at 33-20. In yesterday's matchup, the Yankees emerged victorious, further solidifying their status as one of the league’s top teams.

Tyler Anderson is projected to start for the Angels, and while he has shown flashes of effectiveness with a respectable ERA of 3.60, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a downturn, as his xFIP sits at 5.18. This season, Anderson has struggled with control, posting a walk rate of 9.8%, which could be problematic against a Yankees offense that leads the league in walks. Additionally, Anderson's high flyball rate (44%) could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees lineup that has belted 86 home runs, the most in MLB.

Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York, bringing a strong 2.88 ERA and a solid strikeout rate of 31.0%. Rodon is not only a high-strikeout pitcher but also faces an Angels offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts this season. This matchup plays to Rodon’s strengths, as he looks to continue his solid performance.

Despite the odds favoring the Yankees, the Angels possess a potent offense that ranks 4th in home runs. If they can capitalize on Rodon’s flyball tendencies, they might still pull off an upset. The game total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations of a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Angels projected to score approximately 3.86 runs and the Yankees at 5.14, the Angels will need to exceed expectations to turn the tide in their favor.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 7.8% from last season to this one (49.4% to 41.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball batters like DJ LeMahieu generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's 88.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 89.5-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Logan O'Hoppe is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Yoan Moncada, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell, Chris Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+6.75 Units / 21% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.35, Los Angeles Angels 4.13

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

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