New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 7/28/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

With the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees renewing their storied rivalry, this American League East matchup promises excitement at Fenway Park on July 28, 2024. Both teams are in the thick of playoff contention, with the Yankees boasting a season record of 61-45 and the Red Sox at 55-48. The Yankees come into this game on a high note, having defeated the Red Sox 11-8 on July 27, marking the third game in this series.

On the mound, the Red Sox will turn to Tanner Houck, who has been excellent this season with an ERA of 2.71 and a Win/Loss record of 8-6 in his 20 starts. Houck ranks as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his peripheral indicators, including a 3.25 xFIP, suggest that he might have been a bit lucky this year. Houck's high-groundball rate (55%) could be crucial against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs with 149 dingers this season.

On the flip side, Carlos Rodon takes the hill for the Yankees. With a 10-7 record and a 4.42 ERA in 21 starts, Rodon has been solid, if unspectacular. His peripheral stats, like a 3.82 SIERA, indicate he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Rodon’s ability to strike out batters (6.7 strikeouts per projection for this game) will be tested against the Red Sox's offense, which ranks 4th best in MLB.

Both offenses should keep this game lively. The Red Sox are led by Jarren Duran, who has been stellar with a .293 batting average and 13 home runs. Aaron Judge continues to be the Yankees' powerhouse with a .314 batting average and 37 home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 53% win probability, despite the betting markets seeing this as a coin-flip with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. With both bullpens being less than stellar—26th for Boston and 19th for New York—this game could come down to which starter performs better.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has relied on his secondary pitches 10.6% more often this season (50.2%) than he did last season (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 101.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 99.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The New York Yankees projected batting order ranks as the strongest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last start, Tanner Houck struggled when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball batters like Romy Gonzalez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.70 Units / 217% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.05 vs Boston Red Sox 4.48

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