New York Yankees at San Diego Padres Prediction For 5/26/2024

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will clash with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on May 26, 2024. This interleague matchup promises to be an exciting showdown between two teams with contrasting seasons. The Padres, playing at home, have a record of 27-28, which indicates an average season. On the other hand, the Yankees boast a stellar 37-17 record, showcasing their impressive performance this year.

Taking the mound for the Padres is right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove, ranked as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started nine games this season. While his win-loss record stands at 3-4, his ERA of 6.14 leaves room for improvement. However, Musgrove's 4.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and could perform better in the upcoming game.

Opposing Musgrove will be right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who takes the mound for the Yankees. Schmidt, ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB, has started 10 games this season. With a solid win-loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.59, Schmidt has been a strong contributor to the Yankees' success. However, his 3.48 xFIP indicates that he may experience some regression and could perform slightly worse going forward.

This game marks the third and final game in the series between the Padres and the Yankees. In their last game, the Padres suffered a 4-1 defeat against the Yankees. The Padres had a closing Moneyline price of -125, indicating a slight favorite, but the Yankees prevailed with a closing Moneyline price of +105.

When it comes to offensive prowess, the Padres rank 10th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicating room for improvement. The Padres' power is evident, as they rank 10th in team home runs and 7th in stolen bases this season.

On the other hand, the Yankees boast the top-ranked offense in MLB, demonstrating their dominance at the plate. Despite ranking 29th in team batting average, their ability to hit for power is evident, as they rank 8th in team home runs. However, their team stolen bases rank 20th, indicating a lack of speed on the basepaths.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Padres hold the 8th position in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Yankees rank 25th. This suggests that the Padres have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an implied win probability of 47%, with a moneyline of +105. The Yankees, with a moneyline of -125, have an implied win probability of 53%. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both teams have a projected win probability of 50%, making this a closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt's cut-fastball utilization has increased by 6.8% from last season to this one (28.2% to 35%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Alex Verdugo's quickness has declined this season. His 27.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.63 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the New York Yankees.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove's 2611-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 99th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has had positive variance on his side given the .086 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .313.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 71% ROI)

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.82 vs San Diego Padres 4.55

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