New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 6/12/2024

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cody Poteet - Yankees
  • Dan Altavilla - Royals

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees continue their series on June 12, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a solid 39-29 record, look to bounce back after a tough 10-1 loss to the Yankees yesterday. Despite the lopsided score, the game was projected to be close, reflecting the competitive nature of both clubs.

The Royals are projected to start Dan Altavilla, who has struggled this season, ranking #286 out of approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB. Altavilla's projections are bleak, with an average of 1.0 innings pitched and 0.8 earned runs allowed. On the other hand, Cody Poteet will take the mound for the Yankees. Despite an excellent ERA of 1.72, Poteet's peripheral indicators suggest he has been lucky, with an xFIP of 3.86. His projections for today's game are also concerning, with an average of 4.7 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Yankees have been one of the best teams in the league, ranking 2nd overall. Aaron Judge has been a force, boasting a .309 batting average and a 1.149 OPS with 25 home runs. Over the past week, Judge has been on fire, hitting .476 with a 1.831 OPS, including 4 home runs and 13 RBIs.

The Royals' offense is no slouch either, ranking 9th overall. Bobby Witt Jr. has been their standout player, hitting .321 with a .929 OPS, including 11 home runs and 19 stolen bases. Over the last week, Nick Loftin has been their best hitter, batting .385 with a 1.040 OPS.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a close game with the Royals having a 48% chance of winning, higher than the betting market's implied probability of 41%. With a potent offense and facing a low-strikeout pitcher like Poteet, the Royals could capitalize on their strengths today. The projections suggest a high-scoring affair, with Kansas City expected to score 5.87 runs on average. Betting on the Royals might offer value given the discrepancy in win probabilities.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will be challenged by the league's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Despite technically being the "starter" in today's matchup, Dan Altavilla may not pitch more than a couple innings since he will function as more of an opener.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 11th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Kansas City Royals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (MJ Melendez, Nelson Velazquez, Drew Waters).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.04 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 35 games (+23.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.55 Units / 52% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.43 vs Kansas City Royals 5.87

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.