Yankees vs Royals Game 4 Best Bet – 10/10/2024

• Date: October 10, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Yankees vs Royals Game 4 Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 4 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 4 Betting Preview

With the postseason in full swing, the October 10, 2024 matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium carries significant importance in the American League Division Series. The Yankees hold a 2-1 advantage in the series, pushing the Royals to the brink of elimination. The Yankees, boasting the 3rd-best offense in MLB according to season-long rankings, have been riding high on their power, ranking 1st in team home runs. In contrast, Kansas City's offense, ranking 14th, has struggled to keep pace.

The pitching duel features Kansas City's Michael Wacha against New York's ace, Gerrit Cole. Wacha, ranked as the 72nd-best starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, will rely on his 3.35 ERA to contain the Yankees' power-heavy lineup. Wacha's tendency to induce flyballs might prove hazardous against a Yankees team leading the league in home runs. His 37% flyball rate could be a recipe for trouble if the Yankees capitalize on his flyballs turning into long balls.

On the Yankees' end, Cole stands firm as the 30th-ranked pitcher in the same Power Rankings, armed with a 3.41 ERA. Despite a respectable ERA, Cole's xFIP of 3.99 suggests some underlying concerns. He'll face a Royals offense that ranks 9th in team batting average, potentially presenting a tricky lineup for Cole to navigate.

Both pitchers are projected to deliver shorter outings, with THE BAT X— the leading MLB projection system—forecasting 4.3 innings for Wacha and 4.9 for Cole. However, the bullpens could play a significant role. Kansas City's bullpen ranks 7th by advanced statistics, providing a potential late-game edge over the Yankees' 12th-ranked relief corps.

The Yankees, favored with a moneyline of -150, have an implied win probability of 58%, while the Royals, at +130, face an implied win probability of 42%. As the Royals fight to stay alive, they'll need to defy the odds in a game where both pitching and power could tip the balance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team in action today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Austin Wells is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Kansas City (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Wacha to throw 76 pitches in this matchup (least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 47 games (+17.09 Units / 36% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Game 4 Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.37 vs Kansas City Royals 3.28

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