New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 8, 2024, both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup yesterday, where the Cubs fell to the Yankees 2-0. The stakes are high for the Cubs, who sit with a record of 72-70, while the Yankees boast an impressive 82-60 record, solidifying their spot among the league's elite.

Chicago will send Jameson Taillon to the mound, who has had an average season overall, ranking 147th among MLB starting pitchers. Taillon's most recent outing was strong, throwing 7 innings without allowing an earned run, but projections suggest he may struggle today, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs over 5 innings pitched. He faces a daunting Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in the league in offensive production and 2nd in home runs, making it a challenging matchup for the right-hander.

Conversely, Gerrit Cole, projected to start for New York, has been a force on the mound, ranking 28th among MLB starters. With an ERA of 3.65 and a solid strikeout rate, Cole's performance against Chicago’s below-average offense could tilt the game in favor of the Yankees. The projections indicate that the Yankees are expected to score an impressive 5.36 runs, while the Cubs are projected for a modest 4.04 runs, highlighting the disparity in offensive firepower.

With the Cubs' offense ranking 23rd in both batting average and home runs, they will need to find a way to capitalize on any mistakes made by Cole. Overall, the Yankees enter this game as significant favorites, and given their current form and the strength of their lineup, they appear poised to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Recording 17.5 outs per outing this year on average, Jameson Taillon places him the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) suggests that Seiya Suzuki has been lucky this year with his .275 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 96 games (+22.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.70 Units / 60% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.35 vs Chicago Cubs 4.08

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