New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/16/2024

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to clash on June 16, 2024, at Fenway Park in the third game of their series. This American League East showdown features two teams with contrasting seasons thus far. The Yankees boast a stellar 50-23 record, while the Red Sox sit at 36-35, reflecting a more average performance.

On the mound, the Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford, who has a 3.47 ERA and a 2-6 record across 14 starts. Despite his solid ERA, his 4.07 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could regress. Crawford is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB with 107 home runs. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Crawford as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average.

The Yankees counter with Marcus Stroman, who has an excellent 2.82 ERA and a 6-2 record in his 14 starts. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests he’s also been lucky and might not sustain his current level of performance. Stroman’s low strikeout rate (17.4%) could be a concern against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

Offensively, the Yankees hold the upper hand with the 2nd best lineup in MLB, featuring a top-4 batting average and the 2nd most home runs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are no slouches, ranking 8th overall in offense with strong showings in batting average (9th) and stolen bases (8th), but only an 11th place ranking in home runs.

The Red Sox bullpen has struggled mightily, ranked 29th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Yankees’ bullpen sits at a more respectable 15th. This disparity could be crucial in a close game.

The betting odds favor the Yankees, with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 43%. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair.

In their last seven games, Enmanuel Valdez has been the Red Sox's standout hitter, boasting a .455 batting average and a 1.390 OPS. For the Yankees, Jose Trevino has been the key contributor, hitting .357 with two home runs and a 1.143 OPS over the same period.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman has gone to his secondary pitches 14.7% more often this year (60.1%) than he did last year (45.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Batters such as DJ LeMahieu with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kutter Crawford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gleyber Torres has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all starters, Kutter Crawford's fastball spin rate of 2480 rpm ranks in the 90th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Connor Wong is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, David Hamilton, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 54 games (+20.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+15.60 Units / 312% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.29 vs Boston Red Sox 4.62

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