New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 7/13/2024

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As we head into the second game of this American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees are both enjoying standout seasons. The Orioles hold a 57-37 record, while the Yankees are close behind at 57-39. Baltimore's recent form has been bolstered by the hot bat of Heston Kjerstad, who boasts a .462 batting average and a 1.226 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Jose Trevino has been the Yankees' best hitter over the past seven days, maintaining a .333 batting average and a 1.067 OPS.

On the mound, the Orioles will start Grayson Rodriguez, the #57 ranked pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Rodriguez has been solid this season with an 11-3 record and a 3.52 ERA. The projections have him going an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.4 batters, but also giving up 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks.

The Yankees will counter with Luis Gil, who is ranked #51. Gil has put up a 9-5 record with a stellar 3.27 ERA. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. The projections have him pitching 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.4 batters, but also conceding 5.0 hits and 2.2 walks.

Offensively, both teams bring firepower to the table. The Orioles rank 2nd in MLB in offense and lead the league in home runs. Their ability to turn flyballs into home runs could be pivotal against Gil, who is a high-flyball pitcher. On the flip side, the Yankees' offense is ranked 5th and is 2nd in home runs, though their stolen base ranking sits at a lowly 29th.

The Orioles have the edge with a -135 moneyline, implying a 55% win probability. Given their powerful offense and Rodriguez's reliable arm, Baltimore looks to have a slight advantage. However, with both teams performing at a high level, fans can expect a tightly contested game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2407 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2460 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Aaron Judge's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 101.9-mph average last season has decreased to 99.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Gleyber Torres has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to league average, Grayson Rodriguez has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.1) may lead us to conclude that Gunnar Henderson has had some very good luck this year with his 38.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 88 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.07 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.87

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