New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Tampa Bay Rays on May 3, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, the home team for this game, are looking to bounce back from a disappointing season with a record of 14-18, while the Mets have been performing above average with a record of 16-15.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale, who has had an average season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Civale is considered the #91 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets are expected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB.

Civale has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.06, which is not impressive. However, his 3.46 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. In contrast, Quintana has started six games as well, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.48. However, his 4.55 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward.

The Rays' offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, but they have shown some strengths in team batting average, ranking 9th, and team home runs, ranking 4th. Additionally, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd. On the other hand, the Mets' offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB, with their strengths lying in team batting average, ranking 24th, and team home runs, ranking 11th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Rays are ranked 10th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets rank 13th. This suggests that the Rays have a slight advantage in terms of bullpen performance.

Overall, the Rays have an implied win probability of 55% based on their current moneyline of -135, while the Mets have a 45% probability based on their moneyline of +115. This indicates that betting markets expect a close game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given his reverse platoon split, Jose Quintana will be at an advantage squaring off against 9 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brett Baty is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in the game: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Yandy Diaz's quickness has declined this year. His 26.61 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.61 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (44.5% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+16.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 60% ROI)

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.15 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.43

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