Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brad Keller - White Sox
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 3, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, with a record of 14-17, are having a below-average season, while the struggling White Sox sit at 6-25, making it a terrible season for them. As the home team, the Cardinals will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, an elite right-handed pitcher. Gray has had an outstanding season so far, with a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.16. However, his xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. On the other hand, the White Sox will send Brad Keller to the mound, who has yet to start a game this season. Keller has a perfect 0.00 ERA but his xFIP indicates that he may struggle in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank 27th in MLB, indicating a below-average performance. However, they excel in team batting average (ranked 7th) and team home runs (ranked 5th). The White Sox, on the other hand, have the worst offense in the league, ranking 30th. They struggle in team batting average (ranked 22nd) and team home runs (ranked 21st).

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Cardinals have the best bullpen in MLB, while the White Sox rank 27th. This suggests that the Cardinals may have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Sonny Gray is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 1.7 earned runs, striking out 6.0 batters, but giving up 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Brad Keller, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 3.1 batters, and giving up 5.3 hits and 2.7 walks on average.

The Cardinals are the heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -260 and an implied win probability of 70%. The White Sox, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +220 and an implied win probability of 30%.

With the Cardinals' strong pitching, potent offense, and dominant bullpen, they have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly anticipating this game to see if the Cardinals can continue their success or if the White Sox can pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brad Keller is expected to record an average of 15 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

This year, there has been a decline in Eloy Jimenez's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.52 ft/sec last year to 24.85 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Sonny Gray should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#2-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.82 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.06 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.8

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