New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/4/2024

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Christian Scott - Mets
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will be hosting the New York Mets at Tropicana Field on May 4, 2024. The Rays, with a record of 15-18 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Mets hold a 16-16 record, indicating an average season.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zack Littell, who has a 1-2 win/loss record this year. Littell has been performing well with an ERA of 3.27, suggesting he has been a strong asset for the team. However, his 2.68 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward. On average, Littell is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.6 batters, and allowing 5.4 hits and 1.1 walks.

On the other side, the Mets are expected to start right-handed pitcher Christian Scott. Scott has been a solid pitcher this season, ranking as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and allowing 4.7 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank as the 24th best in MLB this season. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. They also have a strong presence in home runs, ranking 4th, and stolen bases, ranking 2nd. The Mets, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 16th overall. They struggle in team batting average, ranking 24th, but perform decently in home runs, ranking 11th, and stolen bases, ranking 15th.

Based on the current odds, the Rays are favored to win with a moneyline set at -120, indicating an implied win probability of 52%. The Mets have a moneyline of +100, suggesting an implied win probability of 48%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup, with the Rays having a slight edge in terms of projected win probability. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Christian Scott is projected to throw 85 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brett Baty is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Mets have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.9° mark is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell has relied on his four-seam fastball 6.1% less often this season (21.8%) than he did last season (27.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Harold Ramirez is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+11.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 113 games (+15.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.05 Units / 57% ROI)

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.33 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.09

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