New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 7/8/2024

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Christian Scott - Mets
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets are set to clash at PNC Park on July 8, 2024, in what will be the fourth game of their series. Both teams find themselves in different phases of the season; the Pirates are struggling with a 42-47 record, while the Mets are hovering around .500 at 44-44.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, a right-hander with a 9-5 record and an impressive 3.48 ERA over 17 starts this season. However, Keller's advanced metrics paint a mixed picture. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Keller ranks #130 among approximately 350 starting pitchers, making him a below-average option. He's projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters—figures that suggest he's vulnerable, especially when facing a potent Mets lineup.

The Mets will counter with Christian Scott, another right-hander, who has started just six games this season. Scott's 0-2 record and 4.32 ERA indicate an average performance, but he ranks as the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has the potential to be good. Scott is projected to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5 batters. Despite a middling ERA, Scott could have an edge facing a Pirates offense that ranks 26th in the league and has a high strikeout rate.

Offensively, the Mets hold a clear advantage. They rank 10th in overall offensive prowess and 4th in home runs, compared to the Pirates, who rank 26th and 17th in those respective categories. Francisco Lindor has been hot for the Mets, boasting a .276 batting average and an .895 OPS over the last week, including two home runs and six runs scored. Rowdy Tellez has been the standout for the Pirates, with an impressive .412 batting average and a 1.386 OPS over his last six games, including three home runs.

The Pirates' bullpen, ranked 10th, will need to be sharp to counter a Mets lineup that can change the game with one swing. The Mets' bullpen ranks 19th, making late-inning scenarios potentially favorable for Pittsburgh.

With both teams implied to have an equal chance of winning—each with a moneyline set at -110—this matchup promises to be tightly contested. However, given the Mets' superior offensive firepower and Scott's favorable pitching metrics, they might have the upper hand.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Christian Scott has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 7.29 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.49 — a 1.2 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Mark Vientos has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 15.5% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 9.7% Barrel% of the New York Mets grades them out as the #3 group of hitters in the majors this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all SPs, Mitch Keller's fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm is in the 79th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (79th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+12.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 64% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.14 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.85

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