New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 7/20/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park on July 20, 2024, in what is shaping up to be a lopsided National League East matchup. The Marlins, currently sitting at 34-63, are enduring a dismal season, while the Mets hold a 49-47 record, reflecting a more average performance. This game marks the second in the series, with the Mets coming off a win in the previous contest.

The Marlins will send Roddery Munoz to the mound. Munoz, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled mightily this season, posting a 5.47 ERA and a 6.98 FIP, indicating he has been fortunate to avoid even worse results. His 1-4 Win/Loss record and projections from the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggest continued difficulties. Munoz is expected to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.8 walks—none of which bode well for Miami.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with right-hander Luis Severino. Severino has been more reliable, sporting a 3.78 ERA over 18 starts, although his 4.43 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Severino's projections indicate he'll pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.9 hits, and 1.7 walks. While these numbers aren’t stellar, they are considerably better than Munoz's projections.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB, struggling mightily with a team batting average of .223 and ranking dead last in home runs with just 78. Conversely, the Mets boast the 7th best offense, ranking 10th in batting average and 5th in home runs. This stark contrast in offensive firepower significantly favors New York, especially against Munoz, a high-flyball pitcher who could be particularly vulnerable to the Mets' power hitters.

The Marlins’ bullpen is ranked 12th, which is a bright spot for Miami, while the Mets' bullpen lags behind at 21st. However, given the expected starting pitching and offensive disparities, the Mets are rightly favored with a moneyline of -170, translating to a 61% implied win probability. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +145, have an implied win probability of just 39%.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Severino has gone to his non-fastballs 12.6% less often this season (38.5%) than he did last year (51.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.D. Martinez has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 16.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Bryan De La Cruz's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.3-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+15.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+11.00 Units / 220% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.36 vs Miami Marlins 4.59

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