New York Mets vs Houston Astros Pick – 3/29/2025

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros host the New York Mets on March 29, 2025, both teams find themselves at a crossroads early in the season, each with a record of 1-1 and looking to gain an edge in an interleague series that has already seen some intense moments. Notably, the Astros are coming off a tough loss where they were shut down, raising the stakes for today’s matchup at Minute Maid Park.

The Astros are projected to start Spencer Arrighetti, who currently ranks as the 177th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. While his average projections include allowing 2.4 earned runs over 4.6 innings, his tendency to give up 4.1 hits and 2.1 walks does raise concerns. These factors may play into the Astros’ strategy as they look to capitalize on their home field advantage.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Griffin Canning, who has been flagged as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Canning also has less-than-encouraging projections, expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks. His struggles could open the door for the Astros, who have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Mets' 4.05.

With the Astros holding a moneyline of -130, it appears the betting markets anticipate a close contest as both teams aim to secure an early season momentum shift. Despite their current standings, the Astros' home field advantage and the struggles of Canning could tilt the game in their favor, making them a compelling pick for today's action.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 141 games (+17.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 117 games (+21.60 Units / 14% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Mets
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.