New York Mets vs Houston Astros Pick – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tylor Megill - Mets
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Mets on March 28, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Astros enter the game with a 1-0 record this season, riding a wave of confidence after a solid opening performance. In contrast, the Mets are struggling, having lost their first game of the season and looking to turn things around.

In this interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park, the Astros will send out Hunter Brown, who is ranked as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Brown's performance has been solid, projecting to allow just 2.0 earned runs on average, despite a concerning average of 4.1 hits allowed. He also has the ability to strike out 5.6 batters per outing, making him a key asset for the Astros.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Tylor Megill, whose projections suggest a below-average outing. Megill is expected to pitch 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, but his struggles are evident with projections for 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks allowed. This disparity in projected performance favors the Astros and highlights the challenges the Mets face in this matchup.

With the Astros holding a high implied team total of 4.27 runs compared to the Mets' low 3.73 runs, the Astros are positioned as betting favorites at -140. As both teams look to establish their identity early in the season, this game is crucial for the struggling Mets, while the Astros aim to build momentum and capitalize on their advantageous matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Extreme groundball bats like Brett Baty generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Hunter Brown to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Tylor Megill will have the handedness advantage over Jose Altuve in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.8% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 157 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 128 games (+15.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 50% ROI)

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