New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • David Peterson - Mets
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the New York Mets on September 10, 2024, both teams are coming off a tightly contested matchup in which the Mets edged out the Blue Jays 3-2 the previous day. With the Blue Jays sitting at 68-77 and the Mets at 79-65, the stakes are significant, especially considering the Mets are vying for a strong finish to secure their playoff position.

The matchup features two pitchers with contrasting seasons. Chris Bassitt, projected to start for the Blue Jays, has had an up-and-down year with a 9-13 record and a 4.30 ERA, ranking him as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB. While his recent performance shows promise—allowing just 2.3 earned runs on average today—his tendency to allow 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks could pose issues against a potent Mets lineup.

On the other hand, David Peterson is projected to take the mound for the Mets. With a stellar 9-1 record and a remarkable 2.75 ERA, he stands out as an average pitcher in terms of overall performance but has shown flashes of brilliance, including a strong outing in his last start where he allowed only 1 earned run over 6 innings. Peterson faces a Blue Jays offense that ranks 14th in MLB and is particularly low in home runs, which could limit their scoring opportunities.

Interestingly, the leading MLB projection system suggests that the Blue Jays may actually have an edge in this game, projecting them to score an average of 4.28 runs compared to the Mets' 3.82 runs. With this information in mind, there may be value in betting on the Blue Jays, especially as they look to rebound from yesterday's loss and capitalize on the Mets' weaknesses.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team on the slate today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Francisco Alvarez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 98.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to average, Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

New York's 2nd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Daulton Varsho, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 112 games (+16.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)

New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.09 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.29

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