Mets vs Phillies NLDS Game 1 Prediction For 10/5/2024

• Date: October 5, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kodai Senga - Mets
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Mets vs Phillies Game 1 Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Betting Preview

As October baseball heats up, the Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the New York Mets on October 5, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in a National League Division Series matchup. Philadelphia comes into this game with momentum, having clinched a playoff spot by winning the NL East, while the Mets are looking to make a statement in this pivotal first game of the series after winning in the Wild Card round.

The Phillies, led by the elite Zack Wheeler, who is ranked 5th among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, are the favorites in this contest. Wheeler boasts a stellar 2.57 ERA this season, and his projections suggest he will maintain strong form, allowing just 1.8 earned runs on average with six strikeouts. However, his 3.30 xFIP indicates some regression might be in order.

Philadelphia's lineup, ranked 4th in offensive power, will be key against the Mets' Kodai Senga. While Senga's advanced stats show potential, with a 1.77 xFIP suggesting he's been unlucky, his projection of pitching only 1.7 innings today raises concerns about his effectiveness. The Mets' offense, ranked 9th, will need to capitalize on its power, particularly with Francisco Lindor coming off a strong week, hitting .273 with two home runs and two stolen bases.

Both teams feature average bullpens, with the Phillies ranked 15th and the Mets 18th, which could lead to late-inning drama if the game remains close. Despite the Phillies being big favorites with a moneyline of -180, the Mets have the potential to surprise, especially if Senga outperforms his projections. With a low game total of 7.0 runs, expect a tightly contested affair as these division rivals kick off their series in a high-stakes matchup.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kodai Senga to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 30 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 15th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 113 games (+18.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 3.75 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.66

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.