Mets vs Brewers Game 3 Betting Pick & Prediction – 10/3/2024

• Date: October 3, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are set to face off on October 3, 2024, at American Family Field in a critical matchup, as this National League Wild Card series heads into its third game. The Brewers have shown strong form, having secured a 5-3 victory over the Mets just the day before, thanks in part to their consistent offensive output, which ranks 10th in MLB this season.

This game will feature Tobias Myers on the mound for Milwaukee, a right-handed pitcher whose season performance has been a bit of a mixed bag. With a 9-6 record, his ERA stands impressively at 3.00; however, his xFIP of 3.97 suggests he's benefited from some good fortune throughout the year. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, a lefty who holds a 10-10 record and a solid 3.75 ERA. Quintana's xFIP of 4.44 implies similar luck may have favored him.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Myers is unlikely to last long, typically pitching just 4.4 innings with projections showing him allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters—a below-average strikeout projection. Quintana, projected to pitch 4.5 innings, is expected to allow 2.2 earned runs, with a similar strikeout projection of 4.2 batters.

Milwaukee boasts a superior offensive ranking, including 2nd in stolen bases and 7th in batting average. Despite being labeled average in team home runs, their offense could provide crucial run support. Meanwhile, the Mets, with the 9th-ranked offense, rely heavily on their power, ranking 6th in home runs. The Brewers' bullpen ranks 14th, slightly ahead of the Mets at 18th, potentially giving Milwaukee an edge in late-game scenarios.

With the Brewers favored at -130, betting markets imply a 54% win probability for Milwaukee and a 46% chance for the Mets, indicating what should be another tightly contested game in this series.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tobias Myers to throw 72 pitches in today's game (least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

New York's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order projects as the worst of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 109 games (+13.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.06 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.22

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.