New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 8/4/2024

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Mets on August 4, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Angels, currently sitting at 48-63, have struggled this season and are not in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Mets are enjoying a successful campaign with a record of 58-52, positioning themselves as a potential playoff contender.

In their previous encounter on August 3, the Angels edged out the Mets in a thrilling 5-4 victory, a game that showcased the tightly contested nature of this series. The Angels will look to build on that momentum, sending Griffin Canning to the mound. Canning, however, has had a rough season, posting a 3-10 record and a 5.25 ERA, ranking him as the 258th best starting pitcher in MLB. His last outing was particularly challenging, where he allowed 6 earned runs over 6 innings.

On the opposing side, the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has been more reliable this season with a 6-6 record and a commendable 3.89 ERA. Quintana pitched well in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings, which should give the Mets confidence heading into this matchup.

The Angels' offense ranks 24th in MLB, struggling to produce runs consistently, while the Mets boast the 8th best offense, highlighted by their power—ranking 4th in home runs with 132 this season. With the Game Total set at a high 10.0 runs, the projections suggest that the Angels could outperform expectations, with a projected team total of 5.12 runs. The Angels may have found some value as underdogs, especially given that their win probability is slightly higher than the betting market suggests.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.5% more often this season (49.1%) than he did last year (43.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 88.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets projected offense projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.225) suggests that Brandon Drury has had bad variance on his side this year with his .158 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+10.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jose Quintana has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 47% ROI)

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 5.71 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.12

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