Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 7/31/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On July 31, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Minnesota Twins at Citi Field for the third and final game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves in competitive positions, with the Mets holding a 56-50 record and the Twins slightly better at 58-47. This matchup features two right-handed starters, Luis Severino for the Mets and Pablo Lopez for the Twins.

Severino will be aiming to keep the Mets’ above-average season on track. Meanwhile, Lopez has been a stalwart for the Twins, who are having a solid year. Both teams have shown prowess at the plate, with the Mets ranking 10th in team batting average and 4th in home runs, indicating a strong offensive lineup. The Twins are no slouches either, ranking 7th in batting average and 8th in home runs. However, they have struggled on the basepaths, sitting at 25th in stolen bases.

Recent performances from key hitters will also play a pivotal role. Pete Alonso has been on a hot streak for the Mets, hitting .308 with a 1.227 OPS over the last week, including three home runs and eight RBIs in seven games. For the Twins, Matt Wallner has excelled over his last five games, boasting a .385 batting average and a 1.500 OPS with two home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both these lineups have the potential to break out. Citi Field’s dimensions could also favor the power hitters, so expect a few balls to leave the park.

Overall, this clash promises fireworks as both squads look to gain a psychological edge heading into the stretch run of the season. Fans and bettors should keep a close eye on the mound matchups and the recent form of each team's standout performers.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez's four-seam fastball rate has spiked by 5.4% from last year to this one (34.5% to 39.9%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Matt Wallner has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.6-mph to 102.1-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .373 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has had some very good luck given the .056 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 79% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.53 vs New York Mets 4.43

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