Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Picks 5/19/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins in an American League Central matchup on May 19, 2024. The game will take place at Progressive Field, with the Guardians serving as the home team.

The Guardians have been having a great season so far, boasting a record of 29-17. Their offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average team batting average. However, they have struggled in the home run department, ranking last in the league. On the other hand, their stolen base game has been strong, ranking 7th in the league, showing their ability to manufacture runs.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bibee is the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his skill and ability. He has started nine games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.34, which is considered average. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his SIERA and FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Twins, with a record of 24-21, are having an above-average season. Their offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB, with an average team batting average. They excel in the home run department, ranking 7th in the league, showcasing their power. However, their stolen base game has been lacking, ranking 24th in the league.

Taking the mound for the Twins is right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack, who has been performing at an average level. He has started eight games this season, with a win-loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.89, below average. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

Based on the current odds, the Guardians have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Twins have a low implied team total of 3.66 runs. This suggests that it could be a close game, with the Guardians having a slight advantage in terms of projected offensive output.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with the Guardians ranked as the second best and the Twins ranked as the fourth best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could make for an interesting late-game battle, as both teams look to secure the win.

Considering the pitching matchup, the Guardians' offense may have an advantage against Chris Paddack, who is a low-walk pitcher. The Twins' offense, on the other hand, could struggle against Tanner Bibee, who has been performing well this season.

As the game total is set at 7.5 runs, it suggests a low-scoring affair. Betting markets anticipate a close game, with the Guardians favored with a -120 moneyline and an implied win probability of 52%. The Twins, with a +100 moneyline, have an implied win probability of 48%.

Overall, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup between the Guardians and the Twins. With their solid record and strong pitching, the Guardians will look to continue their successful season, while the Twins aim to improve their above-average performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack conceded a staggering 5 earned runs in his last game started.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

This season, there has been a decline in Trevor Larnach's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.64 ft/sec last year to 25.18 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Tanner Bibee is expected to wring up 5.7 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

David Fry has been lucky this year, notching a .423 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .112 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 35 games (+27.20 Units / 78% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.87 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.33

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