Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/19/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on April 19, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Braves sit at 6-13, while the Twins are just a game better at 7-13. This interleague matchup is particularly intriguing given that both teams are looking to turn around their fortunes.

In their last game, the Braves picked up a win over the Twins. With Chris Sale projected to take the mound for Atlanta, there’s a sense of urgency for the Braves to capitalize on their home advantage at Truist Park. Sale, despite his disappointing 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 6.63, is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, indicating he has the potential to be effective. His xFIP of 3.32 suggests he has been unlucky this season, and he projects to strike out an impressive 7.5 batters while allowing just 2.3 earned runs on average.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who has shown promise with a 1-1 record and a more respectable ERA of 4.30. However, his performance has been bolstered by a bit of luck, as indicated by his xERA of 5.72, which could spell trouble against a Braves offense that ranks 20th in MLB. The projections suggest that the Braves could score around 4.69 runs, which is significantly higher than the Twins' projected 3.31 runs.

With the Braves as heavy favorites at a moneyline of -210, they will be looking to leverage their slight edge in pitching and home-field advantage to secure a much-needed victory and get back on track for the season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (59.5% since the start of last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball bats like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Sale.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's matchup, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.7% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (93.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.94, Atlanta Braves 5.23

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Chris Sale - Braves

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.