Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronny Henriquez - Twins
  • Cole Sulser - Rays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the standings. The Rays, with a record of 68-70, are having an average season and are not contending for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Twins, sitting at 75-63, are enjoying an above-average season and are vying for a Wild Card position.

In their last matchup on September 3, the Rays edged out the Twins with a narrow 2-1 victory, showcasing their ability to compete closely even against a stronger opponent. While the Rays' offense ranks a dismal 25th in MLB, they are buoyed by their 4th-ranked bullpen, which has been a key asset throughout the year.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Cole Sulser, who has struggled this season, holding a 5.40 ERA and ranking as the 215th best starting pitcher in MLB. Although he has a lower xERA of 2.55, suggesting some bad luck, his projections indicate he's likely to pitch around 4.0 innings while allowing 1.8 earned runs. The Twins counter with Ronny Henriquez, who has been effective with a 2.45 ERA, but his 3.84 xFIP hints at potential regression.

Interestingly, projections favor the Rays, giving them a slight edge with a projected win probability of 57%. This contrasts with the betting market's implied probability of 49%, indicating potential value for bettors favoring Tampa Bay. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive as both teams look to establish momentum.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Matt Wallner has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last year's 97.1-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Minnesota's 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #23 group of hitters in the league this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Cole Sulser has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 9 opposite-handed hitters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Minnesota's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Josh Lowe, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 82 of their last 136 games (+23.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+14.35 Units / 30% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.12 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.26

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