Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 7/13/2024

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins are set to face off in the second game of their series at Oracle Park on July 13, 2024. The Giants, who have struggled this season with a 46-49 record, find themselves as underdogs once again despite their resounding 7-1 victory over the Twins yesterday. The Twins, leading the AL Central with a 53-41 record, will be looking to bounce back after their unexpected loss.

The starting pitchers for today are Hayden Birdsong for the Giants and Simeon Woods Richard for the Twins, both right-handers. Birdsong, ranked as the #158 starting pitcher, has had a mixed season with a 4.40 ERA but a higher 5.27 FIP, suggesting he might be due for regression. Woods Richard, on the other hand, boasts a solid 3.48 ERA but also appears to be pitching above his peripherals, as indicated by his 4.44 xFIP.

The Giants' average offense, ranked 15th overall, will need to capitalize on Woods Richard’s vulnerability. Patrick Bailey has been particularly hot, batting .389 with a 1.032 OPS over the last week. On the flip side, the Twins' powerful offense, ranked 4th, could exploit Birdsong’s tendency to allow flyballs. Matt Wallner has been on fire, hitting .500 with a 1.611 OPS in the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants should actually be favored with a 56% win probability, despite the betting markets showing them with a 49% implied win probability. This discrepancy suggests there could be value in betting on the Giants, who are projected to score 4.49 runs against the Twins' 4.15.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Simeon Woods Richardson is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Christian Vazquez's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.1-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Hayden Birdsong in the 76th percentile among all starters in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Despite posting a .384 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Heliot Ramos has experienced some positive variance given the .064 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+21.80 Units / 87% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.96 vs San Francisco Giants 4.42

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