Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 6/8/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Minnesota Twins for the second game of their interleague series on June 8, 2024, at PNC Park. The Pirates, boasting a 3-0 shutout victory over the Twins from the previous night, look to build on that momentum despite their below-average season record of 30-33. The Twins, holding a slightly better record at 33-30, will be eager to rebound after being blanked and losing a game where they were favored with a -125 Moneyline.

Carmen Mlodzinski (0-2, 6.75 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh. Despite his rocky start to the season, with a poor ERA and no previous starts, his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 5.33 suggests he's been unlucky and might improve. However, his projections for today's game are grim, with just 3.5 innings, 2.0 earned runs, and 3.8 hits expected. Mlodzinski is yet to prove he can consistently deliver as a starter.

On the flip side, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard (2-0, 3.05 ERA). While his traditional stats paint a picture of success, his 4.30 xFIP implies he's been fortunate and could face regression. He is expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.1 hits. His low strikeout rate (19.9%) might play well against the Pirates, who rank 4th in strikeouts, but his overall projections are not favorable.

Offensively, Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the league, struggling in most categories except stolen bases, where they are a middling 19th. Bryan Reynolds remains their standout performer with 34 RBIs and 8 home runs. Recently, Rowdy Tellez has been a force, boasting a .500 batting average and 1.245 OPS over the past week.

The Twins, although average overall (16th in offense), excel in power rankings, sitting 9th in home runs with Ryan Jeffers leading the charge with 12 homers and an .817 OPS. Manuel Margot has been hot lately, hitting .375 with a .944 OPS in the last week.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Pirates ranked 3rd and the Twins 7th, which could make late-game scoring tough. Betting markets favor the Twins slightly at -120, but THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Pirates a 52% win probability, suggesting potential value in betting on Pittsburgh. With both teams expected to score around 4.8 runs, it looks to be another closely contested game.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been lucky this year, posting a 3.05 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.55 — a 1.5 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Royce Lewis has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 42.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 28.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.59 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.8 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.83

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.