Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 6/22/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics host the Minnesota Twins on June 22, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum for the second game of their series. The Athletics are struggling mightily this season, sitting at 29-49, while the Twins are in a much better position with a 41-35 record. This American League matchup sees JP Sears taking the mound for Oakland against Bailey Ober for Minnesota.

Sears, a lefty, is ranked as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. This places him among the lower tier of starting pitchers. He’s projected to allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.5 innings, but his strikeout rate of 4.1 batters per game and his walk rate of 1.5 per game are both below average. The Twins’ offense, which ranks 15th in batting average and 5th in home runs, should be able to capitalize on Sears' weaknesses, especially considering their power at the plate.

On the flip side, Ober is ranked 41st, putting him in the upper echelon of starters. He projects to allow just 2.2 earned runs over 5.6 innings while striking out 6.2 batters and issuing only 1.1 walks. Given that the Athletics have a woeful .batting average ranking (28th) but are 6th in home runs, they might find it challenging to string together hits against Ober but could still pose a threat with the long ball.

Recently, JJ Bleday has been hot for the Athletics, recording a .474 batting average and a 1.388 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Carlos Santana has been smoking hot for the Twins, boasting a .533 batting average and a 1.678 OPS in the same timeframe.

Oddsmakers favor the Twins with a moneyline of -165, translating to a 60% implied win probability. The Athletics, as underdogs at +140, have an implied win probability of 40%. Based on the current odds, the Twins are expected to score 4.44 runs while the Athletics are projected to score 3.56 runs.

With both offenses capable of hitting home runs and the Twins' superior pitching, Minnesota looks well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup, reinforcing their above-average season.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has relied on his secondary offerings 6.7% more often this season (61%) than he did last year (54.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Byron Buxton is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Royce Lewis ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears's 2097-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Max Schuemann is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 49% ROI)
• Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.20 Units / 41% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.71 vs Oakland Athletics 3.62

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