Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees Pick For 6/5/2024

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the New York Yankees will take on the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium in an American League matchup. The Yankees, with a record of 43-19, are having a great season, while the Twins, with a record of 33-27, are having a good season themselves.

The Yankees, as the home team, will be looking to continue their winning ways. They boast the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in overall performance. However, their team batting average is ranked 29th out of 30 teams, which may be surprising considering their offensive success. On the other hand, the Twins offense ranks 14th in MLB, showcasing their average performance.

The Yankees are projected to start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has been impressive this season. With a win-loss record of 7-2 and an ERA of 3.09, Rodon has been a key contributor to the Yankees' success. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Rodon will be right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack of the Twins. Paddack has started 11 games this year, with a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.57. While his ERA is average, his 3.96 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in upcoming games.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Twins have the advantage, ranking 6th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Yankees, on the other hand, rank 23rd, suggesting that their bullpen may be a weakness.

Looking at the betting odds, the Yankees are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185, giving them an implied win probability of 63%. The Twins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +160 with an implied win probability of 37%.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the strong Yankees offense and the solid Twins offense. With Rodon on the mound, the Yankees will look to capitalize on their offensive prowess. However, Paddack's potential for improvement and the Twins' strong bullpen could make it a close contest. Baseball fans can expect an exciting game at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (91.6 mph) has been considerably slower than than his seasonal rate (92.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jose Miranda's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 26.63 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.04 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.8% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.9) implies that Austin Wells has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 15.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The New York Yankees projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 39 games (+18.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.29 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 64% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.37 vs New York Yankees 5.29

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