Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 7/26/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are set to face the Minnesota Twins on July 26, 2024, at Comerica Park. This American League Central matchup will see the home Tigers with a record of 51-53, taking on the division-leading Twins, who boast a 56-45 mark. With the Tigers on the brink of a playoff push and the Twins aiming to solidify their position, this series opener holds significant importance.

Detroit will turn to right-hander Keider Montero, who has struggled this season. Montero holds a less-than-impressive 5.97 ERA, making him one of the lower-ranked starters in MLB. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he’s been a bit unlucky and could improve. Meanwhile, Minnesota counters with Pablo Lopez, ranked 17th in MLB and sporting a deceptive 4.86 ERA. Notably, Lopez’s 3.14 xFIP suggests he’s pitched better than his ERA indicates and is poised for better results.

Offensively, the Tigers have been underwhelming, ranking 25th overall in MLB, with better but still subpar numbers across batting average (23rd) but hovering around the middle in home runs (18th). Recently, Mark Canha has been a bright spot, hitting .333 with a 1.011 OPS over his last five games.

In stark contrast, the Twins’ lineup ranks 6th overall and delivers consistent power, sitting 8th in home runs and 7th in batting average. Matt Wallner has been a standout over the last week, posting a .333 average and 1.178 OPS.

The Tigers possess an average bullpen ranked 13th by advanced stats, while the Twins’ bullpen stands strong at 5th. Given the bullpen superiority and overall lineup strength, Minnesota enters as the betting favorite with a -165 moneyline, implying a 60% win probability. The Tigers, with a moneyline of +145, have a 40% implied win probability. As both teams eye their respective goals, this series opener promises critical early action in setting the tone.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has utilized his four-seam fastball 5% more often this year (39.5%) than he did last year (34.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ryan Jeffers's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 90.5-mph average last season has fallen to 85.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Despite posting a .198 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Javier Baez has been unlucky given the .090 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .288.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Detroit Tigers bats collectively have been among the worst in the majors this year ( 10th-worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 13 games (+12.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.99 vs Detroit Tigers 3.85

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