Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 4/22/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park on April 22, 2025, for the second game of their series. The Giants, currently 15-8, are having a strong season and sit well in the standings. In contrast, the Brewers, at 12-11, are enjoying an above-average start but are likely looking for more consistency to climb higher.

In their last matchup, the Giants managed to secure a narrow win, highlighting their competitive edge this season. On the mound, the Giants are projected to start Jordan Hicks, who, despite a tough start to the year with a 1-2 record and a troubling 6.04 ERA, has a respectable 4.37 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for a turnaround. While Hicks has struggled with his control, projecting an average of 2.1 walks today, he is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs.

Meanwhile, the Brewers will send Jose Quintana to the mound. Quintana has been exceptional thus far, boasting a 2-0 record and an impressive 0.71 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP indicates some potential regression. Quintana's low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Giants offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts. This matchup plays into Quintana's strength, which could give him an edge.

Offensively, the Giants rank 18th overall, with a particularly low batting average of 21st in MLB. Conversely, the Brewers rank 21st in overall offense but have a more respectable batting average of 14th. As both teams vie for a win, betting markets have set the Game Total at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested clash.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jose Quintana's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (58.3 vs. 52.9% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Christian Yelich tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks's fastball velocity has jumped 2.7 mph this season (97 mph) over where it was last season (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

This season, Matt Chapman's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 12.8% last year to just 5.8% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.60 Units / 212% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.95, San Francisco Giants 4.65

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

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