Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 5/20/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League matchup on May 20, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a record of 15-33 this season, are having a tough time, while the Brewers are enjoying a great season with a record of 27-19.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has started 9 games this year. Weathers holds a 2-4 win/loss record with an ERA of 3.81, which is considered good. However, his 4.43 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ross, who has started 8 games this year. Ross holds a 2-4 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.61, which is average. His 3.86 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

Weathers is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings today, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and allowing 5.8 hits and 1.9 walks on average. Ross, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and allowing 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

Offensively, the Marlins rank as the 29th best team in MLB this season, highlighting their struggles. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. In contrast, the Brewers have the 3rd best offense in MLB, despite a lower team batting average ranking.

In terms of betting odds, the Marlins have a +115 moneyline, indicating a 45% implied win probability, while the Brewers have a -135 moneyline, suggesting a 55% implied win probability. This indicates that the betting markets expect a close game.

Overall, the Brewers seem to have an advantage in this matchup, with a stronger record this season and a slightly higher projected win probability. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Marlins' strong team batting average could potentially pose a challenge for Joe Ross, who is a high-flyball pitcher. It will be an exciting game to watch between these two teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .331 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tallying 92.3 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Ryan Weathers places him the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Josh Bell's speed has fallen off this year. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.75 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+13.90 Units / 73% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.03 vs Miami Marlins 4.4

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.