Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/5/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, two of the top teams in the National League, are set to square off on July 5, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, boasting a 53-35 record, will host the Brewers, who are right on their heels with a 52-36 record. This matchup is particularly intriguing given both teams' strong seasons and the elite pitching duel on tap.

The Dodgers will send Tyler Glasnow to the mound. Glasnow, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has an impressive 3.23 ERA this season. Despite getting roughed up in his last outing, Glasnow's advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky and could bounce back strongly. His excellent control (6.7% BB rate) will be crucial against a Brewers offense that ranks 3rd in walks.

On the flip side, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale, who has had a tough season with a 5.07 ERA. Although Civale's underlying metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky, projecting better performance moving forward, his high flyball rate could spell trouble against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs.

Offensively, the Dodgers are a juggernaut, ranking 1st overall. They also rank 5th in batting average and 3rd in home runs, highlighting their balanced attack. Shohei Ohtani has been their standout performer, with a .316 batting average, 27 home runs, and a 1.035 OPS. Over the last week, Chris Taylor has also been on fire, hitting .308 with a 1.086 OPS.

The Brewers, while not as potent, still boast the 8th best offense. They rank 4th in batting average and 2nd in stolen bases, making them a versatile threat. William Contreras has been their top hitter, posting a .298 average and an .804 OPS. Jackson Chourio has been on a tear recently, hitting .421 over the last week with a 1.184 OPS.

The Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 7th, should provide a solid backup for Glasnow, while the Brewers' bullpen, sitting at 14th, may face a tougher challenge. Betting markets heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. THE BAT X projects the Dodgers to have a 68% win probability, suggesting value in betting on Los Angeles.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale has relied on his cut-fastball 6.2% less often this season (31.2%) than he did last season (37.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.5) provides evidence that Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year with his 20.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's 2557-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last week's worth of games, Teoscar Hernandez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chris Taylor, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.15 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 87 games (+12.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.89 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.59

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