Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Fernando Cruz - Reds

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Reds currently sit at 64-72, having suffered a humiliating 14-0 defeat in their last outing against the Brewers, while Milwaukee boasts a solid 79-56 record and is in contention for a postseason berth. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with Cincinnati looking to bounce back after their recent struggles.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Fernando Cruz, who has had a rough season with a 5.17 ERA and a 3-8 record. Despite being ranked 91st among starting pitchers in MLB, Cruz’s xFIP of 2.96 suggests he may be due for some positive regression. However, he faces a challenge against a Brewers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in drawing walks, which could exploit Cruz's tendency to issue free passes (12.0 BB%).

Frankie Montas, the Brewers' starter, comes in with a 4.64 ERA and a 6-9 record, ranking 77th among MLB starters. While both pitchers have had their issues, Montas has more recent experience under his belt, having pitched 24 games this season. His ability to limit damage could be crucial, especially since the Reds' offense, while ranking 16th overall, has been inconsistent, highlighted by a troubling 27th rank in batting average.

The projections indicate a close game, with the Reds projected to score 4.77 runs and the Brewers slightly ahead at 4.98. Given the Reds’ recent performance and the implications of this matchup, all eyes will be on how Fernando Cruz handles the high-pressure situation against a potent Brewers offense.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Frankie Montas has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

William Contreras has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last season's 94.7-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #24 team in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Fernando Cruz has a reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dominic Smith has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 12.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 21.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Tyler Stephenson has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games at home (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 129 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games at home (+15.50 Units / 129% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.11 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.91

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.