Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals Pick For 8/4/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Nationals Park on August 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this critical matchup. The Brewers have been performing well, holding a record of 62-48, while the Washington Nationals are struggling at 50-61, ranking as the 25th best offense in MLB this season. The Nationals did manage to upset the Brewers on Saturday, though, despite the superiority of the Brewers as a whole this year.

In this contest, the Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher with an average ERA of 4.31 this year. Although Parker has shown some control with a low walk rate (6.2 BB%), he faces a challenge against a Brewers offense that ranks 9th overall and is adept at drawing walks. Parker's recent form suggests he may struggle, as he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and 4.9 hits on average today.

On the other side, Tobias Myers is set to take the mound for the Brewers. With a solid ERA of 3.10 and a Win/Loss record of 6-4, Myers has been effective this season, although projections indicate he may have been a bit fortunate. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while giving up 5.4 hits.

The Brewers have a significant advantage in their lineup, as they rank 5th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Nationals' struggles with power are evident, as they rank 29th in home runs. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup could see the Brewers capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Nationals team. Betting markets currently favor the Brewers, setting their moneyline at -135, indicating a belief in their ability to secure a win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (58.4% this year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jacob Young has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Riley Adams has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 100 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.09 vs Washington Nationals 4.31

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