Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Pick For 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on September 11, 2024, both teams are looking to build momentum in this tightly contested National League matchup. The Giants enter this game with a record of 71-74, struggling to find their footing this season. In contrast, the Brewers boast an impressive 83-61 record, solidifying their status as one of the stronger teams in the league.

In their previous game on September 10, the Giants narrowly lost to the Brewers, 3-2, marking their second consecutive defeat. The Giants are projected to start Blake Snell, who ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Snell has shown signs of being unlucky this year, with a 3.62 ERA that masks his better underlying metrics, including a 2.77 xERA. He is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 7.2 batters on average.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Colin Rea, who, despite having a solid 12-4 record this season, is noted as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB. Rea's 3.72 ERA looks decent, but his 4.34 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate this season. The projections indicate that San Francisco has the edge in this matchup, with the Giants being favored at a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 3.75 runs.

Offensively, the Giants have struggled, ranking 19th in MLB, while the Brewers sit much higher at 10th. Matt Chapman continues to be a bright spot for San Francisco, having performed well recently. With both teams having a low total of 7.0 runs for this game, it remains to be seen if the Giants can bounce back and secure a win against a patient Brewers lineup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Brice Turang is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

William Contreras has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given his large reverse platoon split, Blake Snell will be at an advantage going up against 8 batters in the projected lineup who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 108 games (+5.45 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 142 games (+9.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.52 vs San Francisco Giants 4.26

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