Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers travel to PNC Park for the first game of a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 24, 2024, contrasting seasons bring different motivations for both teams. The Brewers, sitting on a solid 89-67 record, have impressed this season and are positioned as favorites. On the other side, the Pirates' 73-83 record reflects a challenging year. The Brewers are particularly keen on maintaining their strong showing as they chase playoff positioning.

Pittsburgh will send lefty Bailey Falter to the mound, who has a middling 8-8 record with a 4.15 ERA. Despite an above-average ERA, his xFIP of 4.69 suggests he's been a bit fortunate and may face difficulties against Milwaukee's potent lineup. Falter's projected outing of 4.6 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed reflects potential struggles, especially against a Brewers team ranked 10th best in offense and boasting a strong team batting average and stolen base threat.

Milwaukee counters with Tobias Myers, a right-hander with an impressive 3.05 ERA. However, his 4.01 xFIP shows he's had some luck on his side as well. Myers is projected to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, aligning with the notion of an average performance against the Pirates. Despite these projections, Milwaukee's offensive depth provides a cushion, and William Contreras's hot streak—highlighted by a .412 batting average over the last week—adds to their confidence.

The Pirates, whose offense ranks 28th in the league, will rely on the recent form of Oneil Cruz, who boasts a 1.188 OPS over the past week. Yet, the advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest Pittsburgh's bullpen is average, which might not suffice against Milwaukee's capable hitters.

With an implied win probability of 44% for Pittsburgh compared to the Brewers' 56%, the game is projected to be closely contested, reflecting a win probability of 47% for the Pirates by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Enthusiasts may anticipate a tight matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brice Turang has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .254 BA is considerably lower than his .291 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's 91.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph jump from last season's 90.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Jared Triolo, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 153 games (+9.40 Units / 6% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 89% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.95 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.44

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