Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bet – 7/6/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • James Paxton - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As we head into the second game of this National League matchup on July 6, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers both find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Dodgers come in with a stellar 53-35 record, while the Brewers are not far behind at 52-36. Yesterday, the Dodgers narrowly edged out the Brewers in what was a tightly contested game.

On the mound today, the Dodgers will start James Paxton, a left-hander who has been fortunate with a 7-2 win/loss record and a 4.28 ERA this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest trouble; his 5.18 xFIP indicates he's been quite lucky. Paxton is a high-walk pitcher (11.7 BB%), and the Brewers, who are 3rd in MLB in drawing walks, could exploit this weakness. Paxton projects to pitch only 5.0 innings today, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which is concerning.

Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers and boasts an impressive 3.83 ERA, with advanced metrics suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky. Peralta's 3.21 SIERA from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates he could perform even better. Peralta projects to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.3 innings, striking out 6.1 batters. However, his high fly-ball rate (41 FB%) might be a liability against the Dodgers' powerful lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs.

Offensively, the Dodgers are the top-ranked team in MLB, excelling in batting average (5th) and home runs (3rd). Freddie Freeman has been their standout hitter recently, with a .353 batting average and 1.182 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Brewers' offense ranks 8th, with a notable 4th place in batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. Christian Yelich has been on fire, hitting .417 with a 1.315 OPS over the past week.

In the bullpen, the Dodgers hold a slight edge, ranking 6th in advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to the Brewers' 14th place. This could be a crucial factor in a game projected to be closely contested, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50% according to the betting markets.

Overall, while the Dodgers’ offense and bullpen might give them the edge, the Brewers have a better starting pitcher on the mound. Expect a tight game with plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 7.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, William Contreras has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97 mph compared to last year's 94.7 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Milwaukee Brewers bats as a unit place 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton's curveball percentage has risen by 8.9% from last year to this one (19.3% to 28.2%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

James Outman is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

James Outman pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 81 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.16 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.15

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.