Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Oller - Marlins
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins on September 10, 2024, both teams are looking to improve on disappointing seasons. The Pirates sit at 68-76, while the Marlins have struggled mightily with a 54-90 record. Despite their struggles, the Pirates have shown some promise recently, winning their last matchup against the Marlins by a close score of 3-2 on September 9.

In this game, Carmen Mlodzinski is projected to take the mound for the Pirates. Although he has been labeled as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Mlodzinski's ERA of 3.73 this season indicates he has been relatively effective, especially considering he has only made 0 starts and has been primarily used out of the bullpen. His projected performance today is expected to be below average, as he is likely to pitch just 3.6 innings while allowing about 1.8 earned runs.

On the other side, Adam Oller will start for the Marlins. Oller has also struggled, with a 4.15 ERA and a concerning xFIP of 5.11. He pitched 5 innings in his last start, giving up 4 earned runs, which raises questions about his ability to handle the Pirates' offense. Despite ranking 29th in MLB offensively, the Pirates have a slight edge as they face a high-flyball pitcher in Oller, who may struggle against a lineup that has shown little power this season.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Pirates a strong projected win probability of 60%, suggesting they could capitalize on their recent momentum and the Marlins’ pitching woes. The projections indicate that the Pirates are expected to score an impressive 5.30 runs on average, further enhancing their chances in this matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Adam Oller is projected to average 3.08 earned runs in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Connor Norby has been lucky this year, posting a .380 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .077 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez, David Hensley, Cristian Pache).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because of his large platoon split, Carmen Mlodzinski has a tough challenge matching up with 9 hitters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Connor Joe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 8.3% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates grades them out as the #10 offense in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 112 games (+11.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+15.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 35 games (+33.00 Units / 94% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.53 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.31

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