Miami Marlins VS New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • A.J. Puk - Marlins
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -130, Yankees -1.5 110
• Money Line: Marlins 165, Yankees -190
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 37%
• New York Yankees - 63%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 33.38%
• New York Yankees - 66.62%

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Miami Marlins at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a record of 9-2, are having a great season, while the Marlins, with a record of 1-10, are struggling. This Interleague matchup will feature left-handed pitchers Carlos Rodon for the Yankees and A.J. Puk for the Marlins.

Carlos Rodon has been a solid pitcher for the Yankees this season, with an ERA of 2.79. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances. A.J. Puk, on the other hand, has struggled with an ERA of 9.00, but his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve going forward.

In terms of offense, the Yankees rank 13th in MLB, while the Marlins rank 28th. The Yankees have a strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, while the Marlins have a weaker bullpen, ranked 27th.

The Yankees have been led by their star hitter Aaron Judge, who has performed well over the last seven games. In contrast, Jazz Chisholm has been the Marlins' standout hitter recently. However, the Marlins have struggled in various offensive categories, including home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the projections, the Yankees are favored to win this game with a higher win probability. THE BAT X projects the Yankees to score an average of 4.57 runs, while the Marlins are projected to score 3.43 runs.

With Carlos Rodon's ability to induce flyballs and the Marlins' lack of power, Rodon may have an advantage in preventing home runs. Additionally, the Marlins' impatience at the plate could play into Rodon's high-walk style.

In terms of betting odds, the Yankees are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -185, giving them a 63% implied win probability. The Marlins are underdogs with a moneyline of +160 and a 37% implied win probability.

Overall, the Yankees have the edge in pitching, offense, and bullpen strength, making them the favorite in this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Marlins will look to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Over the last 14 days, Avisail Garcia has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cracking 2 long-balls over the last 7 days, Aaron Judge has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 73 away games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 65% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 3.76 vs New York Yankees 5.11

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