Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/24/2024

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Miami Marlins at Kauffman Stadium on June 24, 2024, the two teams find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Royals, with a 42-37 record, are enjoying an above-average season and currently hold a favorable position in the standings. In contrast, the Marlins are struggling with a 27-50 record, marking a disappointing season thus far.

The Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound, who has been outstanding this season. Ragans boasts a 3.13 ERA and an impressive 2.63 FIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better going forward. Ranked as the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ragans's performance has been elite. Despite a 4-5 Win/Loss record, he has consistently delivered quality starts, striking out 5.9 batters on average per game.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Roddery Munoz, whose season has been a stark contrast to Ragans's. Munoz's 5.76 ERA and 4.37 xFIP suggest he has had his fair share of struggles, though the projections indicate he might be slightly better than his ERA suggests. With a 1-2 record in six starts, Munoz has yet to find his rhythm, and his average of 4.8 innings pitched per game doesn't inspire much confidence.

Offensively, the Royals have the edge, ranking 14th in MLB in both overall offense and team batting average. Their ability to steal bases, ranking 7th, adds another dimension to their attack. Kyle Isbel has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .333 with a 1.083 OPS and a home run in four games.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking 29th overall. While Jesus Sanchez has been a bright spot recently, hitting .304 with three home runs and a 1.167 OPS over the last week, the rest of the lineup has struggled mightily.

The Royals are substantial favorites for this matchup, with a moneyline of -240 and an implied win probability of 68%. Given the pitching matchup and the disparity in offensive prowess, it's easy to see why. The Marlins, with a moneyline of +205, face a tough challenge in turning their fortunes around against a strong Royals team.

With the game total set at 9.5 runs, expect some scoring, but the Royals' projected 5.73 runs significantly outpace the Marlins' 3.77. All signs point to Kansas City extending their above-average season with a win in this series opener.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 games at home (+5.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.61 vs Kansas City Royals 6.19

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