Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/22/2024

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
• Run Line: Marlins 1.5 -105, Braves -1.5 -115
• Money Line: Marlins 195, Braves -230
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 33%
• Atlanta Braves - 67%

Projected Win %:

• Miami Marlins - 33.67%
• Atlanta Braves - 66.33%

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the Miami Marlins in a National League East matchup on April 22, 2024. The game will take place at Truist Park, with the Braves serving as the home team.

The Braves have been having a fantastic season so far, boasting a record of 14-6. Their offense has been especially impressive, ranking as the best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showing their prowess at the plate. The Marlins, on the other hand, have struggled this season with a record of 6-17. Their offense ranks near the bottom of the league, making it an uphill battle for them in this matchup.

The Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Elder, while the Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers. Elder, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. While this might not be an impressive ranking, Elder has been consistent, averaging 5.8 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 earned runs per game. However, he struggles with hits and walks, projecting to allow 5.8 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

Weathers, on the other hand, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 2-1 win/loss record and impressive 2.70 ERA, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings on average, allowing 3.2 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 2.2 walks.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -225 and an implied win probability of 67%. The Marlins, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%.

With the Braves' dominant offense and their superior ranking in our Power Rankings, they have a clear advantage in this game. However, the Marlins cannot be counted out, as anything can happen in baseball. It will be an exciting matchup to watch as these teams battle it out on the field.

The Game Total for today's game is set at 9.0 runs, indicating that it is expected to be a high-scoring game. Both teams have the potential to put up runs, especially the Braves with their explosive offense.

Overall, the Braves are in a strong position to secure the win, but baseball is a game of uncertainties. As the Marlins look to turn their season around, they will give it their all to pull off an upset. It promises to be an intriguing game filled with exciting moments and the potential for both teams to showcase their skills.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Atlanta Braves have 7 batters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Weathers in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a ton of pop (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryce Elder has a pitch-to-contact profile (20th percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 67 games (+14.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 away games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Adam Duvall has only hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (-6.55 Units / -51% ROI)

Marlins vs Braves Prediction: Marlins 4.04 - Braves 5.49

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.