Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 7/28/2024

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Miami Marlins on July 28, 2024, at American Family Field. This National League matchup features two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Brewers are enjoying a strong campaign with a 59-45 record, while the Marlins struggle at 39-66.

On the mound, the Brewers will send Tobias Myers, a right-handed pitcher who has performed admirably with a 3.14 ERA over 14 starts. Despite his solid surface stats, Myers's 3.95 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate and could see regression. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Myers to allow just 2.3 earned runs over 5.3 innings, giving Milwaukee a dependable start. He does have a below-average strikeout projection of 4.9, but his ability to limit walks (1.1 projected) could help him navigate the Marlins' lineup effectively.

Opposing Myers will be Kyle Tyler, also a right-handed pitcher, who has had a challenging season. In his four starts, Tyler has posted a respectable 3.92 ERA, but peripheral indicators like a 4.70 SIERA imply he's been quite lucky. Projections are not favorable for Tyler, who is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over just 4.7 innings, while striking out only 3.9 batters and issuing 1.9 walks.

Milwaukee's offense comes in ranked 8th best overall and 5th in team batting average, showcasing their ability to hit consistently. Despite a low ranking in home runs (20th), their ability to draw walks (3rd) and steal bases (2nd) could exploit Tyler's control issues.

Conversely, the Marlins' offense ranks 29th overall and struggles in key areas like batting average (20th) and home runs (29th). Josh Bell has been a recent bright spot for Miami, hitting .407 with 5 home runs and 9 RBIs over the last week, but he can't carry the entire load.

The Brewers have a clear edge, with a robust offense and a more reliable starter. Given the projections and the Marlins' season-long struggles, Milwaukee stands as the strong favorite in this matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Kyle Tyler has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In terms of his batting average, Xavier Edwards has been lucky since the start of last season. His .331 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tobias Myers must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary pitches a lot this year: 58.9% of the time, ranking in the 77th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.05 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.87

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