Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 7/27/2024

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Miami Marlins on July 27, 2024, at American Family Field in the second game of their series. The Brewers, boasting a solid 59-44 record, are having a strong season and currently find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Marlins are languishing with a 38-66 record, struggling to find their footing this year.

Aaron Civale will take the mound for the Brewers, bringing with him a 2-7 record and a 5.17 ERA over 20 starts this season. Despite these underwhelming numbers, Civale's 4.25 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. He faces a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB, which could work in his favor, especially given his high-flyball tendencies and Miami's lack of power (85 home runs, 29th in the league).

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Max Meyer, who has been impressive in his limited action this season. Meyer sports a 2-0 record with a stellar 2.12 ERA over three starts. However, his 3.60 xFIP indicates he might not maintain such dominant performances. Meyer will be tested by a Brewers offense that ranks 8th in MLB and excels in batting average (5th) and stolen bases (2nd). The Brewers' patience at the plate (3rd most walks) could be neutralized by Meyer's excellent control (4.6 BB%).

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a 54% chance of winning, slightly lower than their implied win probability of 59%. This suggests some potential value in betting on the Marlins, despite their struggles this season. The Brewers' bullpen, ranked 24th, could also be a factor, especially if the game is tight late, as the Marlins' bullpen ranks a more respectable 15th.

The Brewers' Jackson Chourio has been on fire over the last week, hitting .440 with an OPS of 1.080, while the Marlins' Vidal Brujan has also been hot, batting .500 with a 1.386 OPS. These performances could play a crucial role in today's game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Max Meyer must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 64% of the time, grading out in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Miami Marlins hitters collectively rank 24th- in MLB for power this year when using their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2571 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2628 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Sal Frelick has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 99 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 games (+14.70 Units / 67% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.31 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.4

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